The Flashlight Oct. 21-27, 2006

THE FLASHLIGHT, October 21-27, 2006

[Editorial Note. New sources which have been consulted regularly for the last three months are Haaretz.com, a liberal journal in English, Tel Aviv, Israel and An-Naharonline.com, in Arabic, Beirut, Lebanon, published by the liberal Greek Orthodox Christian Tueni family. New sources to be consulted regularly are the Daily Star, in English, Beirut, Lebanon, published by the secular Shia Muslim Mrouwe family; and Daily Kos, the best known liberal American blog.

The organization that sponsored the talk by Rami Khouri, cited this week, is the Coalition for Justice in the Middle East. It is a Stanford student organization, with an Arab and a Jew as co-presidents. Its logo shows a dove with the scale of justice in its beak. ]

US Politics: General

Daily Kos 10-27. The average of four new polls gives Democrats a 14.8% lead over Republicans. The Ipsos poll which is supplied to AP and AOL, gives the Democrats a 19% lead. The polls show the Democrats taking 20 to 35 seats in the House of Representatives, where 15 new seats are enough to take control. The Senate races are closer, and both parties reportedly are taking money from House races for Senate races. Negative smear attack ads are increasing.
W Post. Independent voters favor Democrats two to one, 59 pts to 34.

Races
Daily Kos 10-27. In the Ohio Senate race Brown (D.) leads DeWine (R.) 57 to 37. The Republican National Committee has given up and is shifting money from Ohio to other states.
W Post 10-22. Democrats seem assured of taking Senate seats in Pennsylvania, Montana, and Rhode Island as well. They have a chance of taking those in Tennessee, Virginia, and Missouri. The Democratic Senate incumbent in New Jersey is in danger, however. Six new seats are necessary for them to take control.

Sketch of Nancy Pelosi, possible next Speaker of the House

CBS 60 Minutes. 10-22. Rep. Pelosi of San Francisco is the daughter of the mayor of Baltimore (D’Alessandro). She had five older brothers. She is married to Paul Pelosi, a wealthy investment banker. They have four daughters and a son and five grandchildren. Nancy is a disciplinarian at home and in the House. In the latter, an important means of control is the one hundred million dollars she has raised personally for Democratic candidates. Far from being a leftist she emphasizes centrist issues She does not allow any Republican attack to go unanswered. She talks tough, but says her attacks on Republicans are professional, not personal. She has called them immoral, illegal, and criminal, but says that these are her gentle attacks. If she becomes Speaker, she will probably encourage some committee investigations of the Administration, but opposes any talk of impeachment of the President. If elected, Nancy will be the first woman to hold the office of Speaker, breaking the “marble ceiling.”

[Barack Obama. The Senator says that after the election he will consider running for President. TIME magazine and David Brooks, conservative columnist for the NY Times, praise him highly. He voted against the Iraq War, unlike Hilary Clinton, which is an example of his good judgment. But unlike Hilary and most other Presidential contenders, he is relatively inexperienced. How would he emerge from Karl Rove’s sliming?]

Iraq

10-26. CNN. 96 Americans have been killed so far this month, the highest number since the beginning campaign of the war. There is no sign of improvement.
10-22. CBS 60 Minutes. $800 million dollars allocated by the US for the Iraqi Ministry of Defense have been stolen by phony contractors. The money just disappeared into Middle East banks. Much of the equipment delivered to the Iraqi Army has been junk. There was no US oversight and no American seems to care to look into this, only a single Iraqi judge. In addition, 40-50% of oil profits are going to the insurgents, mostly Sunni.

10-25. CNN. According to star correspondent Michael Ware (the one with the Australian accent) in Iraq the Shia are drifting under Iranian control and the Sunni’s, under al-Qaida. But a majority of Sunnis probably hate al-Qaida.

10-24 NY Times. In an op-ed John Tierney reported that near half of all Iraqis are married to their first and second cousins. This serves to explain why family, clan, and tribal feuds play such a role in Iraq.

The Israeli-Lebanese War of the Summer of 2006: Perspectives and Consequences.

By Rami Khouri, a Greek Orthodox Christian from Nazareth, Palestine, Editor at Large for the Daily Star, Beirut. Speech on the Stanford campus, 10-23-06. Attended by Carol Rose, Mary Matossian, George Heaton and about 200 other people.

Mr. Khouri began by saying that American news coverage of last summer’s war in the Middle East was abominable: both inaccurate and incomplete. It was anti-Arab, anti-Muslim, and pro-Israeli. [These remarks did not apply to UK news, like the Guardian, used by The Flashlight.]

The main fault of news coverage was underestimation of the importance of Hizbollah. Hizbollah stood up to the Israeli Army for 34 days, better than an Arab army before. The Israelis occupied only a few border towns. Hizbollah rockets went right over Israeli defenses. Hizbollah secrecy was effective. Hizbollah was able to intercept Israeli military signals. The organization itself was impenetrable. Further, Hizbollah fighters were brave, willing to fight and die.
Mr. Khouri stressed that Hizbollah is an unusual Middle East organization: efficient, incorruptible, accountable, and it delivers consistently on its promises. It is opposed to “terrorism” – that is, attacks of American and European civilians.

The response of the world press to Hizbollah’s triumph, outside of the US and Israel, representing five of the six billion people on earth, was of one of glee. Hizbollah was portrayed as David facing the US-enabled, nuclear armed, Israeli Goliath. Most of the heterogeneous Lebanese supported Hizbollah. The US, which backed 100% the Israeli attacks, including the air attacks that killed 1200 helpless Lebanese civilians, lost even more respect in the world. Mr. Khouri acknowledged that Hizbollah also killed civilians, but said if Hizbollah is held accountable then Israel and the US should also be held accountable.

Mr. Khouri concluded that from now on all Middle Eastern issues are linked together. The core issue is the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. He predicted a big new drive for regional peace.
What the Arabs want is:
1. Support in their struggle again abusive Arab governments (i.e. Egyptian, Saudi, and Jordanian)
2. An end to the long record of Israeli abuses of Palestinians
3. An end to the “predatory” military policies of the US and other Western powers.
He said that al-Qaida is not popular with most Arabs. The Islamists, who do not support attacks on US and European civilians, are popular
He warned that if war between Israel and its Muslim neighbors breaks out again, it will be savage and much more destructive than the 34 day war of last summer.

The Flashlight, October 14-20, 2006

THE FLASHLIGHT, October 14-20, 2006

Iraq

10-16 CNN. Insurgents have been on a rampage in Iraq, especially in Baghdad. Influential Republican Senators Warner and Hagel say that a strategic change of course is needed. Two third of Americans, and 70% of American women now oppose the war.
A group of home-grown Sunni insurgents are offering to negotiate directly with the US. They condemn Iranian aid to Shias.
PBS. Prof. Juan Cole, U. of Mich., blames Shias and Kurds for surge in violence because they are “cocky” and won’t compromise with the Sunnis. He calls for the start of a phased withdrawal to put pressure on the Shias and Kurds.
10-17 CNN. The Maliki government will not let US troops enter Sadr City in Baghdad (2 million) pop and won’t disarm Shia militias.

UN/ North Korea

10-15 CNN. The UN Security Council unanimously voted to condemn North Korea for its nuclear bomb test.
` 10-17. North Korea is reportedly preparing for a second nuclear test..

Nobel Peace Prize
10-13 PBS. Muhammad Yunus, Bangladeshi economist. awarded the prize for distributing microloans to the poor. No collateral was required, but three village sponsors had to guarantee the loan. More than 90% of the loans have gone to women, and 98% of recipients repaid them. This idea has spread throughout the developing world because it is much more efficient than large loans to governments and corporations, which often are corrupt and wasteful.

US Politics:
Dissatisfied Christian Republicans
10-13 PBS and NY Times 10-14. David Kuo, former official in White House Faith Based Initiatives Program, published a book, Tempting Faith, saying the program is mainly intended to woo voters, but little is done for the poor. Focus is on anti-gay efforts. These efforts no longer arouse Conservatives; moreover, pro-gay advocates are now equally committed and organized. Kuo advocates that evangelical Christians “fast” (withdraw) from politics for two years.

The Election – General
10-16. NYT and W Post. The Republican National Committee is now focusing attention on the Senate where their prospects are better than in the House. The Democrats feel sure about gaining eleven seats in the House. Both sides are pouring money into negative ads.
10-17. K. H. Jamieson on PBS. The Democrats’ message is clear. The bad situation in Iraq is to their advantage.
10-18. NYTimes. Voters believe Democrats are more likely than Republicans to create jobs and are less prone to political corruption.
10-19. PBS. Only 16% now approve of the job done by the present Congress.
10-20 CNN. Now 55 Republican House seats are competitive. Only 15 need to be won by Democrats to take control of the House. The main reason is that overall voters intensely want change.

Election Races
10-16 CNN. The Republicans seem resigned to losing Senate seats in Ohio and Pennsylvania. The Democratic Senate candidates are ahead in Tennessee and Missouri, and the vote is too close to call in Virginia.
10-20 CNN. Senator Lieberman has a 17 point leader over Ned Lamont in the Connecticut Senate race. Lieberman has drawn strength from both Independents and Republicans. However, he has promised to keep his identity Democratic.

Political Forecast if Democrats Win

10-18. W Post. Democrats will probably pass legislation to raise the minimum wage, enable the government to negotiate with drug companies for lower prices of Medicare drugs, replenish student loan funds, promote stem cell research, and implement all recommendations of the 9/11 Commission. They will oppose the enlargement of the President’s powers in security matters at the expense of civil liberties. They will revise House rules so that opposition party can introduce amendments and sit on conference committees. They will boost funding of alternative energy. This would force Senator McCain, most likely Republican candidate for president in 2008, to take positions on popular issues.

Other US News

10-15 CNN. There was a 6.7 earthquake in Hawaii causing road and building damage, power outages, and injuries, but no deaths.

10-15 CNN There has been an increase in violent crime in the US, especially in mid-sized cities. More people are being murdered annually than those killed by the 9-11 attacks.

10-16, PBS, Congress has voted to block gambling on the Internet by forbidding banking transactions. But mere prohibition is not likely to stop it.

10-17. NY Times. Both married and single parents are spending at least as much time with their children as they did forty years ago. There has been a sharp increase in the amount of housework and child care performed by fathers.

10-17 CNN and PBS.. The US population passed the 300 million mark. It passed the 200 million mark in 1967. The growth is mainly in the Southeast and Southwest, not on the coasts. Married couple households are now in a minority.
Interracial marriage is increasing.

THE FLASHLIGHT, October 7 – 13, 2006

Iraq

The best writing on Iraq this week was the essay by Fareed Zakaria in Newsweek, 10-16. Excerpts:

“When Iraq’s current government was formed last April, after four months of bitter dispute, wrangling and paralysis, many voices in America and in Iraq said the next six months would be the crucial testing period….The violence has gotten worse, sectarian tensions have risen steeply and ethnic cleansing is in full swing. There is really no functioning government south of Kurdistan, only power vacuums that have been filled by factions, militias, and strongmen. It is time…to recognize that the Iraqi government has failed. It is also time to recognize that the American mission in Iraq has substantially failed….
Iraq is now in a civil war. Thirty thousand [perhaps many, many more] have died there in the past three years….The number of internal refugees, mostly Sunni victims of ethnic cleansing, has exploded over the past few months and now exceeds a quarter of a million people….
President says that if America leaves Iraq now, the violence will get worse, and terrorists could take control. He’s right. But that will be true whenever we leave. ‘Staying the course’ only delays the day of reckoning. To be fair, however, Bush has now defined the only realistic goal left for America’s mission in Iraq: not achieving success for limiting failure.”

10-11, Washington Post. A team of US epidemiologists from Johns Hopkins University and their Iraqi colleagues published an article in Lancet, (UK) that an estimated 601,000 Iraqis have died from violence since March, 2003. US and UN officials were skeptical. The official estimate is 30,000.

North Korea

CNN 10-9 North Korea announced that it had successfully tested a nuclear bomb. This was in violation of promises made to both the Clinton and Bush Administrations. The US Administration is conferring with the East Asian powers about sanctions. The Security Council of the UN voted unanimously to condemn North Korea. Jon Stewart called Kim Jong Il “The Nuke Kid on the Block.”

Nobel Literary Prize

CNN 10-12. The Nobel Literary Prize was awarded to Orhan Pamuk, crusading Turkish liberal novelist, who has been critical of his government and countrymen for their denial of the Armenian Genocide in 1915. He was charged with “anti-Turkishness” last spring, but after pressure from within and abroad, the charges were dropped. He is currently teaching at Columbia University.
New UN Secretary General

NYTimes 10-10. Ban Ki-Moon of South Korea was selected as the new Secretary General of the UN by the Security Council.

The November 7 Election

The Foley Folly has had an impact of voter attitudes.
Times, CNN 10-9. Among those likely to vote, the Democratic lead jumped from 11% to 21%.
NY Times, 10-13. Paul Krugman predicted [other things being the same] that there was a Democratic storm surge likely to overtop the Republican levees. The Democrats lead Republicans by a median count of 14 points.
The Congressional Quarterly 10-11 said that Democrats had gained ground in campaigns for nine Senate seats, and 35 House seats.. Almost all Democrats have improving prospects. To take control they need 15 seats in the House and 6 in the Senate.
PBS 10-10. On the great Republican issue of handling terrorism, Democrats now have a 46 to 41 point advantage.
NY Times 10-7. Republican support has been declining among the elderly, suburbanites, and women.

10-9 CNN. Rep. Jim Kolbe, the only openly gay Repubican member of the House, said that he warned other members about Foley’s seductive electronic messages to pages in 2000, five years before Speaker Hastert acknowledged knowing anything about them.

Commenting on rumors of a secret homosexual network on Capitol Hill, Jon Stewart said that it sounded like the Opus Gayee.
Commenting on Instant Messaging nicknames, Maureen Dowd said that Dennis Hastert was known as the Capitol Rotunda.

The Flashlight, Sept. 29 -- Oct. 6, 2006

THE FLASHLIGHT, September 29 – October 6, 2006

UNITED STATES NEWS

The Foley Scandal

The resignation of Rep. Mark Foley, and the probable loss of his Florida seat by the Republicans, was only the beginning of a scandal that extended throughout the week and may continue longer, for it was a story with legs.

Although it was generally known on Capitol Hill that Foley was gay, his pedophile proclivities toward congressional pages were secret. House Speaker Hastert claimed that he first knew of them on Friday, 9-29, when he saw an Instant Message exchange from ABC between Foley and a page which was sexually explicit, not just overly friendly
. [For full text see Slate.com. Foley and a page, in separate locations, masturbated and talked about it over Instant Messaging. They expressed pleasure that the page’s mother was “computer dumb.”]
In the opinion of veteran David Gergen on CNN, the Republicans handled the scandal clumsily.

10-2. NY Times. The FBI was called in to study the case. As early as 2003 there was evidence against Foley, but he was allowed to remain Chairman of the Congressional Missing and Exploited Children’s Caucus.” Mark Foley was a sponsor of anti-pedophile legislation. CNN. New York Times ethicist Randy Cohen said, “Anyone who gets no pleasure from seeing the downfall of a hypocrite has lost his zest for life

The Republicans notified only the Republican chairman of the page oversight committee, and not its Democratic member. 10-3. NY Times. A Committee for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington” (linked to Democrats) obtained incriminating material from the Internet and sent it to the FBI last July.

Washington Post. The Post said that the scandal would probably depress the turnout of Conservative voters for the Republicans. Republican House leaders John Boehner and Tom Reynolds said that they had told Hastert of Foley’s suspicious behavior, but the Speaker simply told Foley to stop and did not pursue the matter. The President distanced himself by saying he was “dismayed, shocked and disgusted” by Foley’s behavior.
Washington Times. An editorial in this conservative journal asked Denny Hastert to resign as Speaker of the House.
PBS/CNN. Foley checked into an alcoholism rehab center. His attorney said that he was molested between the ages of thirteen and fifteen by a clergyman.
10-4. CNN. Republican candidates all over the US were being bombarded with questions about the case by their constituents. The latter were not interested in any other issues.
CNN. Kirk Fordham, former chief of staff of Foley, resigned as chief of staff for Tom Reynolds and testified that he had informed the senior staff in Hastert’s office three years before about Foley’s behavior with pages. Hastert denied this.
James Carville said that in Washington a man could be the toast of the town one week and become toast the next. He predicted Hastert’s imminent resignation.
It was revealed that Foley gave $100,000 recently to the Congressional Campaign Committee headed by Reynolds.
Two former pages testified on camera that Foley had invited them to his house and made sexual overtures to them, which they refused.

10-5. Washington Post. The Post obtained dozens of additional messages sent from Dec. 2002 to Oc. 2003 which illustrated Foley’s attempts to lure pages into sexual encounters. He promised professional advancement in exchange for sex.

CNN. Hastert announced that he was taking full responsibility for the affair and that he was not going to resign. He said he had not done anything wrong. He tried to blame the scandal on the Democrats and ABC. He appointed the Ethics Committee to investigate the matter further.
Randy Cohen, the ethicist, commented that he had little confidence in the latter investigation. He said the gay/straight issue was irrelevant, but that the different age between Foley and the pages was the issue. He said that secrecy and cover-up are incompatible with democracy.
In the afternoon letters to CNN were overwhelmingly critical of Hastert and the Republicans. Many said they were going to vote for Democrats.

Bob Woodward’s book, State of Denial

9-29. CNN. David Gergen said this book would help the Democrats in the election. Woodward said that the Bush Administration had lied about the amount of violence in Iraq, and that it was increasing. He said that Henry Kissinger was now advising the White House and that he urged Bush to go for victory only. He said that Bush does not welcome any pessimistic assessment of the situation in Iraq.

The Election Campaign

9-29 PBS. All incumbent Democratic Senators are ahead of their Republican challengers.
10-2. New York Times. Paul Krugman wrote that the right-wing alliance of preachers and plutocrats was breaking up. He cited as issues the failure of Social Security privatization, the disgust of Republicans for religious bullies, and the Foley scandal. 10-3 CNN. Conservatives were angry at not being appointed to important offices in the Administration and its failure to pass bills that they wanted. Only 40% of Republicans are looking forward to voting in November.

10-5. CNN. Bill Schneider said moderates favor the Democrats 2 to 1. More congressional seats are now in play. In House: 28 Republican seats are in jeopardy and in the Senate, 7 Republican seats. [The Dems need to take 15 more House seats and 6 more Senate seats to take control.] The Virginia Senate seat, contested by George Allen (R) and James Webb (D) is very close.

Iraq

9-29 PBS. There have now been more deaths of Americans in Iraq than those on 9/11 in the US.

10-4 CNN Death squads are running out of control in Baghdad. Unless the US changes course, the forces of Iran and al-Qaida will get stronger.
Major Gen. Evan Caldwell said the strategy is failing. In the first five days of October, 20 US troops were killed.

10-5. CNN. Of returning veterans from Afghanistan and Iraq, 63% said that troops were overextended, and 42% said that their equipment was inadequate.