THE FLASHLIGHT, October 25-31, 2008
THE FLASHLIGHT
No Peace without Justice, no Justice without the Facts
October 25-31, 2008
Mary Matossian, Editor
mary@matossian.net, Apt. 9-M
US Economy
CNN 10-24-31. The stock market remained very volatile. The Federal Government started to buy shares in insurance companies. Spending stalled and layoffs increased. Interest rates increased. Banks hoarded cash. PBS 10-28. In September consumer confidence was the lowest in 41 years. NYTimes 10-28. Credit card companies were tightening requirements for giving credit. BBC 10-27. Foreclosure rates in the third quarter as compared to the third quarter of last year were up 71%. Home prices continued to decline. It was expected that from peak to trough home prices will fall on average 30%.
CBS 60 Minutes 10-26. Two experts explained the financial crisis. In 2000 it became legal to make side bets that homeowners would not default on their mortgages. The stock market became a casino. It was assumed that house prices would continually rise. The financial instruments used were derivatives and credit default swaps. The risks were only vaguely understood by managers, boards, and buyers. Hedge fund managers made billions.
NYTimes 10-28. David Brooks, “The Behavioral Revolution.” He said that the quantitative models that financial experts used to predict stock market trends were bogus. They did not take into account misperceptions about risk that prevailed in various social networks. The leading misperceptions were:
1. The tendency to overvalue recent events when anticipating future possibilities.
2. The tendency to see data that confirms our prejudices more vividly than data that contradicts them.
3. The tendency to spin concurring facts into a simple causal narrative.
4. The tendency to applaud our supposed skill in circumstances when we have actually benefited from dumb luck.
He concluded that people are often not good guardians of their self-interest.
US Politics
PBS 10-24. Obama led in many red states. McCain failed to change the Republican brand and create a program of progressive Republicanism. Obama has big money donors as well as small, and his spending advantage over McCain political ads was 3 to 1 or 4 to 1.
CNN 10-27. Senator Ted Stevens of Alaska, 84, was found guilty on all seven counts of fraud: failing to report a quarter million in gifts he received on Senate forms. He refused to withdraw from the current electoral race, however. [If he is re-elected, the Senate will have to decide whether or not to expel him.]
Reuters 10-27. In the Jackson area of Tennessee government agents arrested two Neo-Nazi men plotting to kill Obama and as many black children as possible in a local school.
Associated Press 10-29. A national poll showed Obama 50% and McCain 41%. Men were evenly split, women favored Obama by 19 points. Independents favored Obama by 7 points. In a poll of polls Obama lead in Florida by 5 points. CNN 10-29. Bill Clinton campaigned for Obama in Florida. Obama aired a 30 minute infomercial in the battleground states.
NYTimes 10-31. The number who believe Palin is not prepared for the job has rising from 50 to 59% in the last month. Obama now leads 51 to 40% nationally.
Israel
Haaretz 10-25. Sheldon Adelman, gambling king who claims to be the world’s richest Jews, lost $10 billion in October when the value of his shares in the Las Vegas Sands Corporation declined 80%. He reportedly also suffered losses in his Macao gambling concession.
Mr. Adelman is a strong supporter of the right wing Likud Party led by Benyamin Netanyahu. This party opposes closing the illegal settlements in the West Bank.
NYTimes 10-26. Tsipi Livni, leader of the Kadima Party, failed to form a government. An election is expected next February. The Kadima Party favors the evacuation of illegal Jewish settlements on the West Bank.
Haaretz 10-27. Polls showed Livni beginning to edge out Netanyahu, who had been leading in the polls.
Syria
CNN 10-27. US special forces on a secret mission crossed the border from Iraq into Syria and killed 8 Syrian men. The US claimed that the victims had been smuggling weapons and Islamic militant foreign warriors into Iraq. The Syrians vigorously protested.
Afghanistan
CNN 10-29. The Pentagon and the Afghan Government were seeking talks with unspecified members of the Taliban. Afghan women appealed to President Karzai to maintain their constitutional rights. PBS 10-29. The US needs more troops and a better strategy in Afghanistan. In many villages, there is support for the US and NATO presence for security reasons. Economic conditions are poor because of years of drought and lack of sufficient US investment.
Baluchistan
CNN 10-29. A 6.4 earthquake made 15,000 homeless.
[Baluchistan is east of Iran, west of India, and south of Pakistan.}
No Peace without Justice, no Justice without the Facts
October 25-31, 2008
Mary Matossian, Editor
mary@matossian.net, Apt. 9-M
US Economy
CNN 10-24-31. The stock market remained very volatile. The Federal Government started to buy shares in insurance companies. Spending stalled and layoffs increased. Interest rates increased. Banks hoarded cash. PBS 10-28. In September consumer confidence was the lowest in 41 years. NYTimes 10-28. Credit card companies were tightening requirements for giving credit. BBC 10-27. Foreclosure rates in the third quarter as compared to the third quarter of last year were up 71%. Home prices continued to decline. It was expected that from peak to trough home prices will fall on average 30%.
CBS 60 Minutes 10-26. Two experts explained the financial crisis. In 2000 it became legal to make side bets that homeowners would not default on their mortgages. The stock market became a casino. It was assumed that house prices would continually rise. The financial instruments used were derivatives and credit default swaps. The risks were only vaguely understood by managers, boards, and buyers. Hedge fund managers made billions.
NYTimes 10-28. David Brooks, “The Behavioral Revolution.” He said that the quantitative models that financial experts used to predict stock market trends were bogus. They did not take into account misperceptions about risk that prevailed in various social networks. The leading misperceptions were:
1. The tendency to overvalue recent events when anticipating future possibilities.
2. The tendency to see data that confirms our prejudices more vividly than data that contradicts them.
3. The tendency to spin concurring facts into a simple causal narrative.
4. The tendency to applaud our supposed skill in circumstances when we have actually benefited from dumb luck.
He concluded that people are often not good guardians of their self-interest.
US Politics
PBS 10-24. Obama led in many red states. McCain failed to change the Republican brand and create a program of progressive Republicanism. Obama has big money donors as well as small, and his spending advantage over McCain political ads was 3 to 1 or 4 to 1.
CNN 10-27. Senator Ted Stevens of Alaska, 84, was found guilty on all seven counts of fraud: failing to report a quarter million in gifts he received on Senate forms. He refused to withdraw from the current electoral race, however. [If he is re-elected, the Senate will have to decide whether or not to expel him.]
Reuters 10-27. In the Jackson area of Tennessee government agents arrested two Neo-Nazi men plotting to kill Obama and as many black children as possible in a local school.
Associated Press 10-29. A national poll showed Obama 50% and McCain 41%. Men were evenly split, women favored Obama by 19 points. Independents favored Obama by 7 points. In a poll of polls Obama lead in Florida by 5 points. CNN 10-29. Bill Clinton campaigned for Obama in Florida. Obama aired a 30 minute infomercial in the battleground states.
NYTimes 10-31. The number who believe Palin is not prepared for the job has rising from 50 to 59% in the last month. Obama now leads 51 to 40% nationally.
Israel
Haaretz 10-25. Sheldon Adelman, gambling king who claims to be the world’s richest Jews, lost $10 billion in October when the value of his shares in the Las Vegas Sands Corporation declined 80%. He reportedly also suffered losses in his Macao gambling concession.
Mr. Adelman is a strong supporter of the right wing Likud Party led by Benyamin Netanyahu. This party opposes closing the illegal settlements in the West Bank.
NYTimes 10-26. Tsipi Livni, leader of the Kadima Party, failed to form a government. An election is expected next February. The Kadima Party favors the evacuation of illegal Jewish settlements on the West Bank.
Haaretz 10-27. Polls showed Livni beginning to edge out Netanyahu, who had been leading in the polls.
Syria
CNN 10-27. US special forces on a secret mission crossed the border from Iraq into Syria and killed 8 Syrian men. The US claimed that the victims had been smuggling weapons and Islamic militant foreign warriors into Iraq. The Syrians vigorously protested.
Afghanistan
CNN 10-29. The Pentagon and the Afghan Government were seeking talks with unspecified members of the Taliban. Afghan women appealed to President Karzai to maintain their constitutional rights. PBS 10-29. The US needs more troops and a better strategy in Afghanistan. In many villages, there is support for the US and NATO presence for security reasons. Economic conditions are poor because of years of drought and lack of sufficient US investment.
Baluchistan
CNN 10-29. A 6.4 earthquake made 15,000 homeless.
[Baluchistan is east of Iran, west of India, and south of Pakistan.}
posted by THE FLASHLIGHT at 9:53 AM
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