The Flashlight, Nov. 18-24, 2006

THE FLASHLIGHT, Nov 18-24, 2006

Lebanon

NY Times, W Post, Daily Star (Beirut), An-Nahar (Beirut) Nov. 21-23.The political crisis in Lebanon became worse on account of the assassination of Pierre Gemayel, 34, member of the Cabinet and of a powerful Maronite Christian family [Roman Catholic]. Gemayel, like the five other Lebanese politicians assassinated in the last two years, was an enemy of Syria. His car was rammed from behind and blocked ahead by two other vehicles and three gunmen carrying automatic guns with silencers at point blank range shot his head and chest with 24 bullets through the glass windows. He was pronounced dead on arrival at the hospital.

The next day was Lebanese Independence Day but instead of a celebration there was a huge funeral in Beirut conducted by Cardinal Sfeir and attended by an estimated 800,000 people. The funeral went from mourning to angry protest against Syria, which wants to reoccupy Lebanon; and Hizbollah, which is demanding a veto over all government decisions and is threatening street demonstrations until the government is overthrown. With the resignation of six Hizbollah ministers and the death of Gemayel the government is just one man short of losing its quorum. The ruling government coalition of Christians and Sunni Muslims, who call themselves the May 14 Movement in honor of the great demonstration on that day against Syria, is reinvigorated and fighting mad.

The issue at stake is the organization of an international tribunal by the Security Council of the UN to investigate the murder of the billionaire Rafiq Hariri in May, 2005, and the five other murders of anti-Syrian Lebanese politicians that followed. The Syrians, who are suspected of all six murders, want to thwart the investigation, and send in troops to reoccupy Lebanon. Hizbollah, their ally, wants to take over the government. Iran, the sponsor of Hizbollah, wants the defeat of the May 14 Movement, which is sponsored by the US and Western European states. The American University of Beirut, founded my missionaries in 1866, has had a profound cultural influence in Lebanon. It currently has 7,200 students.

US Politics

An op-ed piece in the NY Times, 11-21, by Steven Johnson, argued that the organizing units of American politics are not states, blue and red, but urban versus rural areas. In the last election 70% of Americans in cities over 500,000 voted Democratic. More mountain states voted Democratic because they are urbanizing. Only 20% of Americans live in rural areas and most vote Republican.
Cities are the new centers of American cultural experience. Yet Republicans have spent the last thirty years demonizing urban culture.

Two New Books on the Israeli-Palestine Conflict
Ilan Pappe. The Ethnic Cleansing of Palestine. Oxford, 2006.

Ilan Pappe is an Israeli liberal historian connected with the University of Haifa. In this book he used primary Israeli sources to demonstrate the “truthiness” of the Israeli story that the Palestinian left their homes in 1948 on their own volition or because their leaders told them to. The Zionist leadership drew up a plan, called Plan Daleth (D) for their systematic forcible expulsion. The “unofficial” Zionist militias, the Irgun and the Stern Gang, executed the Plan between March and September, 1948. Both in cities and rural areas the Zionists laid siege to Palestinian quarters and villages, and bombarded them. Then they set fire to their homes, properties, and goods. The next step was forcible expulsion: 800,000 Palestinians were dispossessed of their property and uprooted. In a few villages the population was completely massacred and news of this was deliberately disseminated to inspire terror. Following that, the Arab homes were demolished, and over the rubble trees and bushes were planted to erase all trace of the former residents.
The euphemism “ethnic cleansing” appeared in the early 1990’s when the Serbs tried to forcibly evict their Muslim neighbors from Kosovo. Today forcible expulsion is considered both contrary to human rights and international law.

Jimmy Carter. Palestine: Peace, not Apartheid. NY, Simon and Shuster, 2006.

President Carter believes that the US must try again to bring peace to the Holy Land. He thinks that the primary obstacles is “Israel’s continued control and colonization of Palestinian land.” Israel, he says, has deprived the Arabs in these lands of their basic human rights. “No objective person could observe existing conditions in the West Bank and dispute these statements.” (208-209)
Carter believes that a settlement is possible if the following measures were adopted.
1. Two viable states, one Jewish and one Arab, were established.
2. Israel withdrew within its 1967 borders.
3. The illegal Israeli West Bank settlements were dismantled.
4. The West Bank and Gaza were demilitarized.
5. The Arab refugees were given financial compensation for their lost homes and lands and were given a qualified right to return.

The Flashlight Nov. 11-17, 2006

THE FLASHLIGHT, November 11-17, 2006

The United States

Congress Organizes

NY Times 11-11. The Senate now has 16 women members and the house, 70: a new high. Nancy Pelosi, the first woman Speaker of the House, is using her mother-of-five voice.
W Post 11-17. John Boehner is the new Republican Minority Leader of the House. Mitch McConnell is the Minority Leader of the Senate.
Steny Hoyer is Majority Leader of the House and Harry Reid is the Majority Leader of the Senate.
Hoyer is a practical moderate. He is funny and considerate of others. Now aged 67, he was the boy wonder of Maryland politics, having been elected head of the State Senate at the age of 27. During the past election campaign he raised money, recruited candidates and made nation-wide political appearances.

Expected Congressional Investigations and Legislation

Daily Kos and the Guardian, 11-11
1. High priorities go to an investigation of the Iraq War: misuse of prewar intelligence, causes of failure, and waste, fraud, and abuse in the use of reconstruction billions.
2. The Administration’s domestic wiretap program.
3. Policy making by Cheney’s energy task force.
4. The censorship and intimidation of climate scientists who reported the danger of global warming.
NY Times 11-11. The Katrina reconstruction program was given $7.5 billion in federal funds 14 months ago. It will probably be reviewed. 79,000 families asked for money to repair and rebuild their homes. Only 1,721 applicants have been cleared and told how much they are to receive. Only 22 families have received access to cash to reconstruct. During the flood many families lost the documents proving their ownership and assessing the pre-storm value of their homes.

NY Times 11-11. Organized labor is demanding reform. The unions contributed $100 million dollars to the Democratic Party and dispatched 100,000 volunteers to get out the vote.
They want legislation to make it easier to organize unions in private business, not just government employees. They want to make it harder to fire workers involved in a unionization campaign. Such legislation is supported by over 90% of House Democrats.
The unions also want to bar federal contracts with companies that outsource jobs overseas.
They want to extend health care insurance to the uninsured. They want to improve mine safety.
The first new legislation probably will seek to establish a national minimum wage increase, to reduce drug prices, and to help families pay for college tuition.

New Science Lobby

A new center for lobbying and litigation in Washington, the Center for Inquiry – Transnational, is the creation of scientists concerned with “faith based” measures of the Bush Administration. These measure include: banning embryonic stem cell research, thwarting efforts to reduce global warming, promoting abstinence-only sex education, and promoting “intelligent design” instruction in the schools. The scientists will argue that the media policy of 50-50 representation of opinions on controversial issues is inappropriate when 99% of scientists believe one way, and only 1% disagree. The scientists want to put public policy on a more rational basis.

Presidential Hopefuls

Republicans
Both Rudolf Giuliani and John Mc Cain have taken the first legal steps necessary to run for President.
Giuliani supports abortion rights, gay rights, and gun control, which would make him difficult to attract support in the South. [He may flip flop, though]
McCain wants to send more troops to Iraq, which about two-thirds of the public oppose. [He too may flip flop] In 2008 he will be 72.
Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, helped introduce a state health insurance plan. However, he is a Mormon.

Democrats
Both Hilary Clinton and Barack Obama have good name recognition. But Americans have never chosen a woman or a black as President or Vice President.
John Edwards and Evan Bayh are both presenting themselves on television . Edwards is a southern populist and a polished public speaker with good name recognition. Bayh is a moderate Democrat in a Republican state, Indiana. But neither has any foreign policy experience.

THE WORLD

Iraq
A reevaluation of the US Iraq policy is underway with wide participation in Washington and the press. 11-12 NY Times, According to David Brooks, conservative columnist for the NY Times, both parties desperately want to get out of Iraq by 2008. The Maliki government is stumbling and political fragmentation is increasing. A few leaders, like Bush and McCain, still want to try to “win” but many more people just want to find a way to end US participation in the fighting.
11-13 NY Times. Senate Democrats demand that troop reductions should begin within four to six months.

11-17 W Post. Military leaders are pushing against sending more troops to Iraq because it would severely strain the military, would be unsustainable for more than a few months, and would bring no long term benefit. Military leaders think that it would take 500,000 to a million men to make any difference, and such forces are unavailable now and would not be available for many years in the future.

Events in Iraq
CNN 11-14. In Baghdad a team of armed men dressed as Iraqi police stormed the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research
and kidnapped around 150 men. This constituted a complete breakdown of order. It was thought that a Shia militia [al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army?] was responsible. It may have been a warning to the liberal, secular Sunn intellectual elite.
11-15. The Ministry of Higher Education closed all universities until security could be improved.

11-16. The US sent 2200 more Marines into Anbar Province, which is out of control.
The Shia government of Maliki issued a warrant for the arrest of a major Sunni leader, Harif al-Dari.

Lebanon: a New Crisis

NY Times 11-12. A new crisis in Lebanon began when Hizbollah and his Amal, its Shiite partner, demanded veto power in all decisions within the democratically elected Lebanese government. The liberal majority (Sunni Muslims and various Christian sects, headed by Prime Minister Fuad Seniora) refused. The US supports the liberal majority and Iran and Syria support Hizbollah. Six cabinet members, including all the Hizbollah members, have resigned. Hizbollah has ruled out any return to talks.

[The immediate issue is what the nature will be of the International Tribunal of the United Nations for investigation of the murder of Rafiq Hariri, the Sunni billionaire killed in a car-bombing in Beirut in 2005. The Syrian government is suspect in the murder, for Hariri stood for the evacuation of Syrian troops and spies from Lebanon. Hizbollah would probably veto an impartial international tribunal. In addition, Hizbollah would probably vote to keep the current president of Lebanon, Emile Lahoud, in office, for Lahoud is allied with Syria. ]
Hassan Nasrallah, head of Hizbollah, has threatened to bring out his supporters on the streets to demonstrate until they bring down the present government. Now that the talks have collapsed he is expected to keep his word.

The Israel-Palestinian Conflict
MSNBC 11-13. Hamas has chosen a new prime minister, Muhammad Shabir, a professor of microbiology, former president of Gaza University, and a moderate pragmatist. This is a step toward a return to peace negotiations.

Pollution in China

NY Times 11-15. According to Tom Friedman, people in China speak with greater ease but breathe with greater difficulty. The danger is that a rapid increase in air and water pollution will cause a sudden collapse of the ecosystem. China is using its huge surplus of population to become the low cost world producer of everything. One tenth of the arable land is already polluted. More than half of the rivers are polluted. Coal smoke is thick over the cities.
Pollution, says Friedman, is wasteful and inefficient. Green solutions are low cost.

Health Research

NYTimes 11-17. Resveratrol, the healthy ingredient in red wine, has been found to give not only longer life, but greater endurance. The evidence was obtained by giving large doses of the compound to mice, who became more muscular and developed the slower heart rate of athletes. However, much more work would have to be done before a safe, effective drug is available for humans.

THE FLASHLIGHT, November 3-10, 2006


The US Midterm Election

A reinvigorated Democratic Party achieved victory in both houses of Congress, with at least a 229 member majority in the House, and, with two independents, a 51 member majority in the Senate. They picked up six Senate seats. Harry Reid will become the Majority Leader of the Senate and Nancy Pelosi will become the first woman Speaker of the House. The Democrats also picked up six new governors.

Moderate and Independents voted for Democrats two to one, the largest proportion on record. Consequently the Democrats will move to the center in their efforts according to PBS and CNN commentators. In Congress the Democrats will need to cooperate with Republicans to cope with the Republican President or with the Republican president to cope with right wing Republican congresspeople.

Men and women voted in equal proportions for the Democrats. 69% of Hispanics voted Democratic. Blacks voted overwhelmingly for Democrats. According to Paul Krugman, NYT 11-10, the “Solid South,” a stronghold of New Deal Democrats, has been replaced by the “Solid Northeast.”

Speculation about the imminent political situation: 11-10 CNN. There has been no congressional oversight of the executive branch during the Bush Administration and that is about to change. The new Democratic committee chairpeople will piously talk about their responsibilities while digging up all the accumulated abuses they can. Democrats will avoid talking about the three G’s: God, gays, and guns.

According to the Economist, 11-11, Bush will not be able to push for any more tax cuts for the rich or seat any more conservative judges. But in cooperation with the Democrats he may be able to develop an acceptable immigration reform bill. The Democrats will not focus of passing big reforms but on preparing for the 2008 presidential election. (see esp. pp. 38 and 43).

The day after the election Don Rumsfeld resigned as Secretary of Defense to the joy of a chorus of uncounted individuals. The day before the election the Gannett Company, publisher of Army Times, Navy Times, Air Force Times, and Marine Times, called for his resignation. On 11-9 Maureen Dowd in the NY Times speculated that the timing of this event was influenced by the desire of Jim Baker and company to get Rumsfeld out of the way before they announced their proposals for dealing with the Iraq fiasco (expected early next year). They didn’t want Rumsfeld around to mess things up, she thought. Robert Gates, Director of the CIA in the period of Bush Senior, will replace Rumsfeld. He is reputedly cautious and pragmatic, like Bush Senior.

US Religion

11-4 CNN Ted Haggard, the President of the National Association of Evangelicals with a membership of 30 million was forced to resign after a former gay prostitute said that they had a three-year relationship and that in additionHaggard used methamphetamine. He was forced to resign as well from his megachurch in Colorado At first Haggard denied the charges, but later admitted he was a liar. His accuser said that his own motivation was to expose the hypocrisy of Haggard, who had been campaigning against gay marriage.

World

PBS 11-3. A new British scientific study of global warming said that the cost of doing something about it now would be less than the cost of coping with epidemics, famines, hurricanes and higher ocean levels in the future. The US is the largest emitter of greenhouse gases but so far has done nothing much to curb them.

Nicaragua

CNN 11-8 A national election in Nicaragua elevated Daniel Ortega, former Communist rebel leader, to the presidency. [Remember the Iran-Contra scandal in the time of Pres. Reagan? That was about illegal American financing of the guerillas who were contra to the Communists in Nicaragua.] Ortega has allied with a liberal party and is moderated. But he is also cozy with Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez, the leftist president of Venezuela.

THE FLASHLIGHT, October 28 – November 3, 2006

US Politics
General
PBS. 10-29 About $230 million dollars a week are being spent on political ads. When the campaign is over it is estimated that one billion dollars will have been spent on them.
NY Times 10-29. The Democrats have spent $35 million to improve their turnout.
CNN 10-30. Two thirds of Democrats are more enthusiastic than usual and want to begin withdrawal from Iraq.

The Democrats are finding new support in the Western states just inland from the coastal state group: Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, Idaho, and Montana. (Mormon Utah is still a Republican stronghold). Some of these states have Democratic governors and are hostile to Christian evangelicals. They love their guns, though.

CNN 10-31. In the Western states Libertarians have c. 15% of the voters.
Approval of medical marijuana is widespread.

Races
Races in which Democrats lead: Menendez appears safe in his Senate seat in New Jersey. Webb leads Allen in Virginia. Eliot Spitzer has a 47 point lead in the race for Governor of New York. A sleazy attack ad has hurt black Democrat Ford in Tennessee, but polls differ. The Missouri Senate race is a dead heat. Peterson, the Democratic nominee, now leads in Arizona. The Republican incumbents in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Montana appear to be losing.

11-2. The Guardian Unlimited (UK) revealed that a socialist was about to become the first socialist US Senator ever: Bernie Sanders in Vermont. To my knowledge this was the first news in the mainstream media about this race. Sanders calls himself an “independent” or a “progressive” or a “democratic socialist.” He is running to fill the post held by retiring Jim Jeffords, Independent.

Sanders opposes the outsourcing of jobs abroad and free trade. He wants to establish a national health plan and to bring the troops back from Iraq within a year. Barbara Streisand supports him. He is the official Democrat Party nominee. His Republican opponent has spent six million dollars and has made little headway.

The World

The Israeli-Lebanese War of summer 2006
The British journal The Independent 10-29. British scientists studying bomb craters in Lebanon just two miles north of the Israel border found traces of enriched uranium. They speculated that these were residues of an experimental weapon.

Iraq
Guardian 10-29. Women, both Muslim and Christian, in Iraq are being executed for going bareheaded or driving a car.
W Post 10-29. On sale in Baghdad: a knock-off Barbie doll wearing a black veil.

CNN 11-1. During the month of October 103 American troops died in Iraq as did 1289 Iraqi civilians. 11-2. 155 Iraqi academics have been killed so far.

NYTimes 11-3. The office of Inspector general for reconstruction in Iraq has been terminated and its Republican head fired after revealing disastrously shoddy work by Halliburton, Parsons, et al. This came in the form of an obscure clause in a House military appropriations bill that was sneaked in two weeks ago at the last minute. Republican Senators Warner and Collins and Democratic Senators are outraged and have initiated legislation to reverse that clause.

Paul Krugman pointed out that Bechtel is pulling out of Iraq after failing in its mission to rebuild water, sewage, and power plants. The twenty one billion dollars allocated for reconstruction has been spent and no more has been allocated. As far as reconstruction goes, the Bush Administration has already started to cut and run.

North Korea
10-31. North Korea has agreed to rejoin the six nation talks on nuclear disarmament.

Lebanon
11-1 and 11-2. An Nahar and Daily Star, Beirut. The liberal Lebanese government led by Prime Minister Seniora is being challenged by Hizbollah, the militant Shia party sponsored by Iran. Hassan Nasrallah, Hizbollah’s leader, is demanding a new “national unity government” in which the Shias (led by Hizbollah and Amal parties) have veto power. Nasrallah threatened to send his people out on the streets to demonstrate until they brought the present government down and had a new election. He expects to win a majority vote in such an election.
Walid Jumblatt, and important leader of the present liberal coalition (“the March 14 group”) flew to Washington and conferred with Secretary Rumsfeld. Then the White House announced that Iran, Syria, and Hizbollah are trying to bring down the Lebanese government, by force if necessary. CNN mentioned a possible coup.

Science

NYTimes 10-30. All energy research in the US has declined in the last 25 years to less than half of what was spent then. By contrast, the money spent on medical research has quadrupled and on military research, has increased by 260%,

NYTimes 11-2. It is no longer believed that moderate alcohol intake from whatever source is equally valuable: the old hypothesis about the superiority of red wine has now been confirmed. A natural substance in the skins of the grapes used to make red wine, resveratrol, has been shown to offset the effects of a high calorie diet in mice. This serves to explain the low rate of heart disease among the French, many of whom drink vin rouge and eat a high calorie diet.

Books

Mortenson, Greg. Three Cups of Tea. A mountain climber staggers half dead into a Pakistani village and is nursed back to life. He promises to build the villagers a school for both boys and girls. After overcoming many obstacles, he succeeds and then starts responding to requests for schools in other villages. The Muslim establishment approves of his efforts, even though the subjects taught are secular. This book is an answer to the question: If war is not the answer, then what is?

Salzman, Mark. True Notebooks. A professional writer teaches a class in writing in a prison for adolescent boys accused of violent crimes. He finds that they are vulnerable and as much victims as criminals. This serves to correct the widespread notion that many criminals are from “bad seed.”

Harris, Sam. Letter to a Christian Nation. The atheist author provides an entertaining attack on Christian fundamentalists and their social beliefs.

Rich, Frank. The Greatest Story Ever Sold. Probably the best written expose of the Bush Administration and its trumped up war in Iraq.

` Carter, Jimmy. Palestine: Peace, not Apartheid. Due out on November 14.