The Flashlight, Dec. 23-29, 2006

THE FLASHLIGHT, Dec. 23 - 29, 2006

US Politics

Presidential Hopefuls

CNN. 12-26. In a recent poll Obama led McCain 42 to 39. But McCain led Hilary Clinton 42-37.

NY Times 12-27. Senator Joe Biden will be the new chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He opposes any troop increase in Iraq.
He is expected to announce his candidacy for President soon.
Sen. Carl Levin, who will be Chairman of the Armed Forces Committee also opposes any increase and called for withdrawal from Iraq to begin four to six months from now.

WPost 12-28. In New Orleans Sen. John Edwards announced his candidacy for the Presidency. He opposes troop increase in Iraq and wants withdrawal to begin . He urged governmental action on health care, a rollback on tax cuts for the wealthy, and new taxes on oil company profits.

The Israeli-Palestine Conflict

NY Times 12-27. For the first time in ten years, Israel announced it would build a new settlement on the West Bank, This made the Palestinians angry and the US government was officially concerned. Peace Now, a Jewish organization described as “leftist” by the New York Times, opposes all illegal settlements on the West Bank. It says that more than fifty illegal settlements have been established there since November 2001, and there are now more than a hundred illegal outposts. The Palestinians call this “thievery.”

NY Times 12-28. In a rare rebuke the US State Department scolded Israel for starting a new West Bank settlement. In 1992 Israel promised to stop all settlement building, but it has allowed it anyway. [The Bush Administration has also tolerated settlement building.]

Iran

NY Times 12-23. The UN Security Council has unanimously approved sanctions against Iran in the form of a boycott on materials that could contribute to Iran’s nuclear program.

The Flashlight, Dec.15-22, 2006

THE FLASHLIGHT, December 15-22, 2006

Iraq

12-15 PBS, Shields and Brooks: Comments on Rumsfeld’s retirement:
Rumsfeld suppressed debate within the military. He saw the war as a campaign to kill bad guys and control territory. His previous experience did not pay off because the world changed when he was Secretary of Defense. He left the military undermanned and underequiped.

`NYTimes 12-18. Gen. Colin Powell said that the US is losing the civil war in Iraq and that a troop increase would not reverse the situation. He called for a drawdown by mid-2007. He said that the Army is broken and that the war cannot be won militarily.

W Post 12-19. The Joint Chiefs of Staff reportedly oppose sending troops even for a short-term “surge” in Iraq. They think this would provoke the entry of more foreign fighters into Iraq. They said that the White House has still not defined a mission for the “surge” troops.

CNN 12-18. Only 12% of the US public favors sending more troops to Iraq.
W Post 12-21. Gold Star Families say they want the troops brought home now.
[Yet President Bush and his small group of loyalists still hunt for a “way forward” to “victory” in Iraq. If the Presidents defies both the experts and the general public, then we may hear increasing talk of blocking Iraq war appropriations and impeachment,]

The Israel-Palestinian Conflict

` CNN 12-19. On TV screens this week were pictures of Palestinians fighting each other in Gaza, Fatah vs. Hamas. Desires for revenge and counter-revenge made the fighting the worst ever. The US is backing Fatah and Syria and Iran are probably backing Hamas.

Counter-Insurgency Methods

New Yorker. 12-19. George Packer, “Knowing the Enemy.” The struggle with radical armed insurgents is fundamentally an information war. Globalized information makes it easier for insurgents to succeed.
The first rule of counterinsurgency fights is to “Know your Turf.” That is far more important than general ideas about Islamic fundamentalism and Al-Qaeda. Successful counterinsurgency is oriented toward a specific time and place, and is not a monolithic response to a global problem. The problem for
counter-insurgents is not to be liked, but to show people that it is in their interest to cooperate with you.
The steps needed to prepare for counterinsurgent operations are:
1. Learn the spoken language of the area of operations.
2. Study the ethnography (a branch of anthropology) of the region, especially social networks and information networks.
3. Use appropriate forms of information technology.
4. Have something to offer people that they want and need; be prepared to protect them if they cooperate with you.

US News

New Orleans

12-21. NYTimes. New Orleans is still a ruin. Very little reconstruction has been done. Despair, mental illness, and crime are up.
The money allocated for reconstruction has either been wasted or is tied up in bureaucracy. Reconstruction in New Orleans has been a fiasco equal to that in Iraq.

Prospects for the Future

NY Times 12-22. Paul Krugman. The Democrats have decided to prevent any increase in the national debt. Should they try to reduce it as well? Or should they launch a new popular program, such as national health insurance?
Krugman says the classical economist approach would be to give priority to reducing the debt. However, political considerations point elsewhere. He says that Democrats need to increase their political capital by launching popular programs. Moreover, if the Democrats focused on creating an annual surplus, that might just play into the hands of the next irresponsible president who might blow the surplus again.

NYTimes 12-22. Tom Friedman says that a critical mass of Americans has embraced environmental concerns, especially recognizing the threat of global warming. Now, he says, greening is “red, white, and blue.” The causes of this change include widespread viewing of Gore’s excellent documentary, “An Inconvenient Truth;” the Katrina disaster, and the awareness that are gas-guzzling vehicles are financing terrorists, extremist preachers, and rogue regimes.
Ron Watson, environmentalist, says, “People see an endangered species every day now when they look in the mirror. It is not about the whales anymore.”

The Flashlight Dec. 8-15m 2006

THE FLASHLIGHT, December 8-15, 2006

The Iraq Study Group Report

NY Times, CNN, PBS 12 – 8-10. Political discussion this week was focused on the Iraq Study Group Report. The attitude of the ISG was that if drastic measures are not adopted immediately, defeat is certain, and even if the measures were taken, they might fail. President Bush delayed his response until January, but the indications were that he was going to reject troop reduction and diplomatic outreach to Syria and Iran. [A contributing factor was probably that these two countries are behind the attempted seizure of power by Hizbollah going on in Lebanon.] PBS commentator said that if Bush increases military operations in Iraq and does not start withdrawal, the opposition to the War, already felt by two-thirds of the population want a timetable for withdrawal, will increase.

The ISG Report split both Republicans and Democrats. The far right Republicans denounced it, and, led by Senator McCain, demanded a “victory” plan involving increased US troop strength in Iraq. Other Republicans who will have to face the voters in 2008 were fearful of adopting such a strategy.
Democrats were split between moderates, who want aggressive oversight hearings on the way government money has been spent in Iraq, and liberals who want to cut off money for the war.

NYTines 12-10. Frank Rich said that the ISG Report did not plot a way forward but merely delayed recognition of our defeat.
Washington Post 12-10. A Pentagon review leaked to the Post said that a successful counter-insurgency campaign in Iraq would require several hundred thousand additional US troops, more Iraqi soldiers, and heavily armed police. The hundreds of thousands of US troops do not exist. Neither does public support for mobilizing them.
`Meanwhile, 100,000 Iraqis are leaving per month, creating the fastest growing refugee crisis in the world.
The Post said that the ISG Report is “a pipedream of one last chance.”

NYT 12-13. The Times revealed that Vice President Cheney’s sudden trip to Saudia [Saudi Arabia] last month was at the demand of King Abdullah, who said that if American troops were withdrawn from Iraq “early” he would send troops and money to support the Sunni insurgent there. He feared that the majority Shia, backed by Iran, would slaughter the Sunnis otherwise. He reportedly “read the riot act” to Cheney.
The King is also worried about both Israel and Hizbollah, and thinks the area is a tinder box.
The Saud family has multiple billions of dollars invested in the US economy. The Bush and Cheney families also have big investments in Saudi oil.

The War Budget

NYTimes 12-14. The Congressional Democrats plan to take charge of spending on the Iraq War, now amounting to eight billion dollars a month. Henceforth war spending will be integrated into the regular federal budget, instead of appearing in a series of emergency budget bills. They expect support for this from some Republican Senators. The Democrats will be looking for waste, corruption and abuse in Iraq contracting.

NYTimes 12-14. Gen. Peter Schoomacher, Army Chief of Staff, says that Army needs to grow by 7,000 men a year to meet world demands. At the beginning of the Iraq War, spring 2003, the Army had fewer soldiers than in 1991, at the beginning of the Gulf War, and a $56 billion equipment shortage.

The Foley Case

The House Ethics Committee found the House leadership “negligent” in handling the case, yet did not recommend that anyone be reprimanded.[!] This finding will make no difference in the FBI investigation, which continues.

2008 Presidential Hopefuls

CNN 12-11. Democratic preferences: Hillary, 37%, Obama, 15%, Gore, 14%, Obama drew overflow crowds in New Hampshire.. He is expected to announce his candidacy in a few weeks.
NYTimes 12-13. Maureen Dodd on Hilary vs Obama: “Will Hillzilla crush Obambi? She concluded: Is Obama tough? Is Hilary genuine?

Senator Johnson Seriously ill

NYTimes 12-14. Democratic Senator Tim Johnson suffered a brain hemorrhage and underwent an operation. He is returning to consciousness. If he should die or resign, the Republican governor of his state would be free to appoint a Republican as his replacement, giving Republicans back control of the Senate.
In the past, if a Senator was disabled but conscious, he did not resign, leaving the Senate situation unaffected.

Reception of Pres. Carter’s Book on Israel/Palestine

Guardian Unlimited 12-12. The British paper said that in the last thirty years there have been severe restraints in America on any free and balanced discussion of the facts of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. There have been no demands that Israel comply with international law or speeches in defence of human rights for the Palestinians.
NY Times 12-14. Carter’s book, Palestine: Peace, Not Apartheid, attempts to change that. The book has sold 68,000 copies so far and is No. 7 on the NY Times Bestseller list. . Carter, who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2002, is being trailed by protestors at some book signings. The Washington Post ran a protest editorial, and the Jewish Anti-Defamation League is running ads against the book in the NY Times, Washington Post, and Los Angeles Times.

The Flashlight, Dec. 1-8, 2006

THE FLASHLIGHT, December 1-8, 2006

World Inequality

CNN 12-5. A UN study of the world-wide distribution of household wealth has found that 2% of the world’s population owns half the wealth, and 1% own 40% of the wealth. The geographic distribution of wealth is also very unequal. Now 90% of household wealth is found in North America, Europe, Japan and Australia.

Iraq

W Post 12-6. The report of the Iraq Study Group headed by James Baker and Lee Hamilton was made public. The report was adopted unanimously and bipartisan. Its principal recommendations were:
1. To reduce military and economic aid to Iraq’s government if it does not meet specific benchmarks to improve security.
2. To withdraw nearly all combat troops during 2007, leaving trainers of Iraqi troops. However no timetable for withdrawal is specified.
3. To aggressively tackle the Israeli-Palestinian dispute.
4. To talk to Iran and Syria and propose a regional conference of all Iraq’s neighbors,.
Commentators said that the report showed that the “stay the course policy had run its course” and it is time to “cut and walk” out of Iraq. President Carter said that the Iraq war was a “huge blunder” rivaling that of Viet Nam.

12-8. Presidents Bush and Olmert (Israel) were unenthusiastic or negative about these proposals. Europeans tended to approve the proposals.

In the opinion of this editor the most incisive critique,of the ISG report came from an American diplomat, Peter Galbraith, published by the Boston Globe 12-7. He said that the report did not acknowledge that Iraq has broken into three parts and is fighting a civil war. About 80% of Iraqis approve the split-up. Consequently the nation building advocated by the report is useless. The militias cannot be disarmed because Iraqis see them as necessary for security. The American training of Iraqi troops cannot make them loyal to a united Iraq.
Galbraith doubts that the new Democratic Congress has the will or the votes to force a troop withdrawal from Iraq.

US Developments

CNN 12-5. While praising retiring governor Jeb Bush in public for his “decency”, father George H.W. Bush broke into tears and had to be helped by his son from the podium. [This appears to be an indication of a Bush family psychodrama.

CNN 12-4. Facing too many hostile Democratic Senators, John Bolton resigned as UN Ambassador.

W Post 12-6. Steny Hoyer, House Majority Leader, said that starting on January 4, 2007 Congress will have a five-day work week, from 6:30 p.m. Monday to 2:00 p.m. on Friday. The previous Congress has had a three-day work week.

The Senate confirmed the appointment of Robert Gates as Secretary of Defence. Gates impressed the senators by saying that we are losing the war in Iraq, despite the President’s contention that we are winning. He was a member of the Iraq Study Group.

The criminal justice system is busier than ever according to data for the end of 2005. More people are behind bars, on probation, and on parole than were in the USSR at the height of its gulag system. There are seven million people in the US system now, of which 2.2 million are behind bars. One in thirty-two adults is in the system.

Science

Canada.com 12-4. Scientists have found that morning sickness in early pregnancy reduces the risk of miscarriage by 70%. In addition, if the pregnant woman is happy, relaxed, and feeling in control, the risk of miscarriage is reduced by 60%. A third contributing factor to natal success is eating chocolate.

PBS 12-7. The Mars surveyor has detecting a flowing liquid on the surface of Mars. It is probably boiling water which evaporates quickly.

THE

THE FLASHLIGHT, November 25 – December 1, 2006

Iraq

CNN 11-25. In Baghdad the educated class is dwindling. The dentists have all left.
Former US Brig. Gen. Karpinski, former nominal head of Abu Ghraib, will testify in the German Court that she saw a memo from Sec. Rumsteld approving various kind of torture.

NY Times, 11-26. According to the report of an Interagency Group of the Bush Administration on the funding of the Iraq insurgency, the insurgents are raising tens of million of dollars a year from oil smuggling, kidnapping, counterfeiting, corrupt charities, and other crimes. Estimates of the amount are vague, but one hundred million a year is possible total. There are corrupt and complicit Iraqi officials aiding the insurgents. The insurgents have so much money they can finance terrorist groups elsewhere.
Other insurgent assets are huge armories left over from Saddam’s days and a large supply of volunteer fighters.

CNN. 11-26. In a debate with Henry Kissinger, Zbig Brzezinski urged that the US withdraw from Iraq as soon as possible.
Shiite death squads have infiltrated the Iraqi government security forces.

CNN 11-28. Hizbollah is reported to be helping the Mahdi Army of Moqtada al-Sadr by sending one to two thousand fighters to Iraq.

NY Times 11-29. A secret memo from Steven Hadley, Bush security advisor, says that Prime Minister Maliki is unhelpful because he makes no concessions to the Sunnis and is dependent of al-Sadr.

NY Times 11-30. The Iraq Study Group final report, which will be made public next week, will call for a gradual pullout of 15 brigades (c. 4000 men each) from Iraq, but set no dates for it. Seventy thousand soldiers would remain in Iraq to train Iraqi security units. The Group said that withdrawals are necessary to put political pressure of al-Maliki to make concessions to the Sunnis.

CNN 11-30. Senator Biden, Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, wants to divide Iraq into three parts.
A CNN report from Baghdad says that Maliki seems to be losing his grip and that Sadr is trying to form an alliance with Sunni elements in order to force US withdrawal from Iraq.
Senator Kerry said that the coming Democratiic led Congress can hold hearings and pass legislation forcing US troop withdrawals.

Lebanon

12-1. Daily Star and An-Nahar. On Friday, Dec. 1, Hizbollah and its allies gathered their followers in Beirut for a massive peaceful sit-in demonstration that was intended to last until the Seniora government, backed by the US and Europe, resigned. The demonstrators are pro-Syrian and do not want an International Tribunal to investigate the political murders of the last two years which many suspect were perpetrated by Syria. The Lebanese Army is defending the Senior government. The president of Lebanon, Emile Lahoud, is pro-Syrian.
The demonstrators condemn the Seniora government because it is backed by the US. They say they want a “clean” government to be elected immediately.
Hizbollah men are intent on keeping violence from breaking out. They are distributing food, water and tents and have setup temporary outdoor toilets.

Israeli-Palestinian Conflict.

Guardian, 11-26. Hamas agreed to a truce with Israel. However, the Palestinians have failed to agree on a national unity government.

US Politics – Climate Change

W Post 11-25. Top executives at many of the nation’s largest energy companies have accepted the scientific consensus among global warming. They also agree that federal regulation is inevitable and see it as better than a patchwork of state regulations.

Congress

SF Chron. 12-1. Speaker Pelosi announced that Rep. Sylvestre Reyes will be the next chairman of the House Intelligence Committee. Reyes, whose district centers on El Paso, Texas, is a veteran of the Army and the Border Patrol. Along with Pelosi, he voted in 2002 against the resolution enabling the President to invade Iraq. He will push for withdrawal .