The Flashlight, November 24-30, 2007

THE FLASHLIGHT, November 24-30, 2007

The Middle East Conference

``` NYTimes, 11-24-26; W Post 11-28; Haaretz 11-29. Forty nations, including 16 Arab Nations began a conference in Annapolis on 11-27 to renew negotiations on the Israel/ Palestine conflict. Only Iran and Hamas were not invited. Libya and Kuwait were invited but declined to attend. The new negotiations will begin December 12, and the expressed hope of the leaders is that they would be completed successfully by the end of 2008. The Arab Nations represent a united bloc.
The Economist 11-24. There is a widespread understanding of what a just solution would be. If President Bush affirms it, he will help moderates on both sides.
Haaretz 11-29. Pres. Olmert of Israel told the leading Israeli liberal newspaper that if there is no two-state solution, Israel is “finished.” In a single state there would be terrible conflict, as in South Africa, over voting rights.
PBS 11-27. Major problems are 1) The 270,000 Israelis currently in West Bank settlements judged to be illegal under international law and 2) the Palestinians remaining in Jerusalem and constituting one-third of the population.

Iraq

NYTimes 11-25. Civilian deaths are down 75% in Baghdad since last June. The surge is over; the current troop level is 162,000. It is expected to fall by the end of December by 5,000, and by next July by 20,000.

Pakistan

NYTimes 11-28. Musharraf resigned as general in the army and was sworn in as President as a civilian. [after a rigged election]. 11-29. Musharraf promised to end the emergency rule and restore the Constitution as of December 16. General Kiani, the Army intelligence chief, will take over leadership of the Army. The former Supreme Court remains under house arrest. Musharraf welcomed opposition leaders Benazir Bhotto and Nawaz Sharif.

France

NY Times 11-28. In the suburbs of Paris undereducated and unemployed youths of Arab and African descent rioted, as they had done in 2005. But this time they were armed with hunting rifles and they wounded, in some cases severely, over a hundred policemen. The government has been planning programs to improve the lot of the immigrants, but little has been accomplished so far.



Lebanon

Guardian 11-30. The Lebanese Government has nominated army chief Michel Suleiman as President. With the aid of the international community, Suleiman was able to deploy Lebanese army troops in Hezbollah-controlled southern Lebanon for the first time in 30 years.

United States
Social Mobility: The Blacks

The Economist 11-24. In a study of the period 1968-2006, social scientists have found that American blacks in the middle fifth income group in the population suffered from declining real incomes and downward mobility. At all income levels, blacks are less likely to exceed the income of their parents than are whites. The probable causes of this are:
1. The failure of black males to complete a college education, which has become necessary to get a good job.
2. The disintegration of the black family. Most black families have only one wage earner, a female.
3. Whites in the middle fifth of income have five times the wealth as blacks. Their extra cash cushions them against job loss and illness. They can more easily get credit and help from relatives.

Science and Morality

Time, 12-3, pp. 54-60. Written by Tiffany Sharples and Alexandra Silver. Scientists have been finding that all people have some moral aptitude. When people “turn bad,” it is usually when they become involved with others outside their own family, community, tribe, or nation. In wartime, it is necessary for them to dehumanize the outsiders in order to slaughter them. In most cases of genocide there is a “moral entrepreneur” who exploits tribalism for evil purposes.

Religion: The Publication of the New Testament

Free Inquiry 11-28. It has long been thought that the publication of the New Testament was the result of a process over many centuries. David Trobish, Professor of New Testament Language and Literature at Bangor Theological Seminary in Maine, argues that the process lasted only a little over one century. He is author of The First Edition of the New Testament, Oxford, 2000. He attributed the publication to Bishop Polycarp of Smyrna (Izmir) in what is now Turkey, and sets the date as between 156 and 168 c.e. [common era, formerly A.D.] His careful scholarly arguments are interesting.

Book Review: Working for Peace in Israel and Palestine, by David Shulman

The review is by Avishai Margalit, “A Moral Witness to the ‘Intricate Machine,’” and it appears in The New York Review of Books, December 6, 2007, 34-37. David Shulman, winner of a MacArthur genius grant and expert on the cultures of India, spent four years in Israel as a “moral witness” to Israeli treatment of the Palestinians. He was a member of Ta’ayush, an Israeli-Palestinian peace organization. This is a diary of his observations. In particular the group struggled against younger Israelis in West Bank settlements:

“Israel, like any society, has violent sociopathic elements. What is unusual about the last four decades in Israel is that many destructive individuals have found a haven, complete with ideological legitimation, within the settlement enterprise.. Here, in places like Chavat Maon, Itamar, Tapuach, and Hebron, they have, in effect, unfettered freedom to terrorize the local Palestinian population, to attack, shoot, injure, and sometimes kill – all in the name of the alleged sanctity of the land and of the Jews’ exclusive right to it. “

The Flashlight, November 17-23, 2007

THE FLASHLIGHT, November 17-23, 2007
No Peace without Justice, no Justice without the Facts

Science

Stem Cell Breakthrough

BBC 11-20, NY Times 11-21. Scientists in laboratories in Japan and Wisconsin, led by Shinya Yamanaka and James A. Thomson, have succeeded in making embryonic human stem cells from human skin cells. This eliminates the need to destroy any human embryos. It opens the way to making neurons, heart cells, lung cells et al. to replace those destroyed by disease and accidents. There is much more hope now for people with Parkinson’s Disease, paralytic spinal injuries, heart disease, lung disease and many other conditions, even Alzheimer’s Disease. This discovery will greatly help the study of birth and developmental defects. The fundamentalists so far have no objection to this kind of research. See the journals Cell and Science.

Stress and Gender

The Economist. 11-17, p. 96. A Danish researcher, Carston Obelin, has found that the more stress on a woman at time of conception, the more likely she will conceive a girl. Stress may be individual and/or social: death in the near family of the woman, economic depression, natural and political catastrophes. Women in rich countries are more likely to conceive a boy than those in poor countries. This relationship is explained in evolutionary terms by the fact that a female is more likely to reproduce than a male. See the journal Human Development.

The World
Pakistan

CNN 11-18, NY Times 11-19. Musharraf set the next election for January 8, 2008, but did not lift emergency rule. Benazir Bhutto, leader of a major opposition party, says that all parties want Musharraf to leave office and that the Constitution be restored. John Negroponte, head of US intelligence visiting Pakistan, agreed.
Bangladesh Cyclone

CNN 11-18. After a Category 4 cyclone hit Bangladesh, the storm surge in the Ganges delta destroyed many thousands of people and homes. Over 3000 bodies have been counted, and the total is expected to reach 10,000. The people there are very poor.

US
Polygamist sentenced

NYTimes 11-21. Warren Jeffs, polygamist leader, received ten years to life in prison for forcing a fourteen year old girl to marry her nineteen year old cousin and submit to sexual relations against her will. Successful prosecution was possible because the victim, now 21, was willing to testify against the accused.

Wireless book Reader

NYTimes 11-20 and Newsweek, 11-26, pp. 57-64. . Amazon.com President Jeff Bezos announced the availability of a new device, Kindle, which can wirelessly download an electronic book reader without a computer. Kindle can download a book in less than a minute and can store up to 200 books at once. It weighs 10.3 ounces and costs $400. A book from Amazon costs $10. Electronic books can be searched.

Humor
Axioms from the Journal of Irreproducible Results, the science humor magazine, V. 50, No. 4, 2007. By John F. Moffitt, Las Cruces.

The supply of truth always greatly exceeds the demand.
The distinction between genius and stupidity is that the former has its limits.
Modern art presents hope that, perhaps, things may not be quite as bad as they are now painted.
Half the people are below average.
When everything is coming your way, you’re in the wrong lane.
A clear conscience is usually the sign of a bad memory.
The early bird may get the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.
99% of lawyers give the rest a bad name.
Experience is something you don’t get until just after you need it.
Optimists proclaim that we live in the best of all possible worlds; pessimists know this to be a fact.
It is always darkest just before it gets to be pitch black.
True pessimism doubts even the sincerity of its own pessimism.

November 10-16, 2007

THE FLASHLIGHT, Nov. 10-16, 2007
No Peace without Justice, no Justice without the facts
[I now consult regularly Google News and The Nation. MM]

Iraq

W Post 11-15. Several US military commanders complained that the intransigence of the Shia Government of Iraq with regard to the Sunni insurgents is the key problem facing the US effort in Iraq, rather than al-Qaida, the Sunni insurgents or the Iran-backed militias. While attacks on US troops and Iraqi civilians have now declined, there is still no progress toward Shia-Sunni reconciliation. [or an oil law]

CNN 11-13. The cost of the six years of war in Afghanistan and Iraq is now $1,6 trillion, double the White House estimate. The President recently signed a $471 billion defense spending bill.

NY Times 11-15. The FBI reported that on Sept. 17, 2007 in Baghdad Blackwater security guards shot 14 Iraqis without cause. The Iraqi government has cancelled the license of Blackwater to operate in Iraq.

Israel/Palestine

Helene Cobban in The Nation, 11-19-07. “Helene Cobban, author and publisher of a blog, JustWorldNews.org, is a Friend in Washington for the Friends Committee on National Legislation.” (boldface mine)
“Facing Hamas and Hezbollah; Refusing to negotiate is an unrealistic policy,” she writes.
The Bush Administration has excluded Hamas from talks this month. This is said to be because the two organizations have not disarmed, physically and ideologically. No such demand has been placed on Israel. No such demand was placed on the Irish Republican Army before negotiations began.
Hamas and Hezbollah have sharply dissociated themselves with the 9-11 attacks. Both have won significant support in free and fair elections in their homelands. Both are willing to enter into cease-fire agreements with Israel. Both have the political strength to compel their followers to comply with such agreements.

United States

CNN 11-12. One out of four of the homeless are veterans.
Recruitment into the military is now below replacement levels.

ABC and AP 11-14 and Wikipedia. The son of Sandra Day O’Connor and John O’Connor announced that his father, who lives in Phoenix in a facility that cares for Alzheimer’s disease patients, has forgotten his wife and marriage, which began in 1952. He now has a sweetheart in the facility. “He is acting like a teenager in love,” said his son. A physician there said that such situations are not uncommon among Alzheimer’s patients.
Sandra Day O’Connor was physically and mentally fit when she resigned from the Supreme Court in early 2006. She said at the time that her husband was ill and she needed to take action for his sake. She is still physically and mentally fit.

Happiness in the US. NYTimes 11-12. Eduardo Porter op ed.
Happiness is clearly real and related to objective measures of well-being. Happier people have lower blood pressure and fewer colds. “People who live with teenagers are the unhappiest of all.”
“Most disconcerting, there seems to be little relationship to economic achievement, which we have historically understood as a driver of wellbeing.” While money boosts happiness, the effect does not last, as we adapt and raise our economic expectations higher. Happiness from non-monetary rewards can be more lasting – such as free time and agreeable social relationships.

Science
ABC News 11-14 and PBS 11-15. Scientists at the Oregon Primate Research Center have now cloned five day old monkey embryos and harvested an abundance of stem cells. From these embryos they can create neurons, heart, lung etc. cells identical to those of the donor. Successful cloning is close for human embryos to obtain stem cells that will not be rejected by the donor. In addition, this opens new opportunities to study genetic diseases.

Humor: USA Weekend, 11--9-11--07 by Bryan Tucker “Bad rap? Hire a publicist! If some of history’s most controversial figures had had the services of a publicist, they might be viewed differently today.”

From the publicist of Cleopatra, Press release, January, 41 B.C. :
“Recently several rumors have surfaced about our supreme leader of Egypt and a Roman triumvir named Mark Anthony after the two were spotted together at the Senate’s annual White Party. It should be stated for the record that Cleopatra and Mr. Anthony are just good friends. They enjoy each other’s platonic company, and they have several common interests, including travel, cooking, and bloodthirsty gladiator sports. Mr. Anthony remains happily married to his Roman wife, Fulvia, who supports his frequent business trips to Egypt. Today Mr. Anthony is proud to announce that his business in Egypt will be expanding as he has formed a joint partnership with Cleopatra to further study the relationship between these two great civilizations. This wonderful partnership will allow for Mr. Anthony to stay in Cleopatra’s royal suite for an extended period of time so that he may get a firsthand look at Egyptian society. No further details are available at this time. Thank you.”

From the publicist of Genghis Khan, Press release, July 1220
“Emperor Genghis Khan, all-powerful leader of the Mongols, would like to answer some unfair questions recently posed by the Mongolian media. Although Mr. Khan is known for pillaging, plundering, and total destruction of all who dare challenge his might, he fears he has been labeled a difficult person. Nothing could be further from the truth. Mr. Khan is a husband, father, and giver who relishes contributing to the community. That’s why Mr. Khan is proud to announce “Mongol Appreciation Day!” Hordes and their families are invited to a festival of food, games, and family fun. Activities will include axe throwing, goat jousting, and a hands-on torture demonstration. Mr. Khan hopes this will, once and for all, put to rest any assertions that he is anything but a charitable man. From now on those who make these assertions will be executed.”

The Flashlight, Nov. 3-9, 2007

THE FLASHLIGHT, November 3-9, 2007
No Peace without Justice, no Justice without the Facts

United States
The Economic Crisis

NY Times 11-7 and 11-8. Sharp market drops (3%, 2.7%) were associated with warnings of a US economic slowdown ahead. The dollar sank to a record low in exchange for the euro. Certain Chinese officials warned that China intends to exchange some of its dollar holdings into other currencies. The mortgage-based credit crunch and ever rising oil prices predict that consumer confidence will decline. This is because with lower equity holding in houses consumers will have less money to borrow for buying goods and services. CNN 11-8. Tech stocks were hardest hit. The national debt has reached nine trillion dollars for the first time. NYTimes 11-9. Federal Reserve Chief Ben Bernanke said the economy would get worse before it gets better, but did not forecast a recession.

Attorney General Appointed
NYTimes 11-9. The Senate confirmed Michael Mukasy as Attorney General by a vote of 53-40.

Presidency 08

11-6 CNN. Ron Paul (R.), a libertarian Republican candidate for President, raised $4.38 million dollars on the Internet within 24 hours. He aims at $12 million by the end of the year. He is the only Republican candidate to advocate ending the Iraq War now, He wants to cut the deficit, lower taxes, reduce government functions, and defend American civil rights. He thinks the Armenian genocide bill is a nuisance.

CNN 11-8. Paul’s success is related to the fact that 68% of Americans want to end the Iraq War now. 63% oppose an air attack on Iran. Voters are angry with Congressional Democrats for failing to
stop the war. PBS 11-6. October 2007 was the worst month since the beginning of the war, since 852 US servicemen died in Iraq.
CNN 11-7. Pat Robertson, Christian fundamentalist, announced his support for Rudolf Giuliani, despite the latter being pro-choice and pro-gay rights. Giuliani is polling close to Hilary Clinton.

The AIPAC Espionage Case

Guardian and Associated Press 11-3. As a result of an FBI sting operation in 2004, two officials of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, the most important element in the Israel Lobby, are charged with espionage. The two officials are Stephen Rosen, former foreign policy chief, and Keith Weissman, senior Iran analyst. They are charged with illegally passing Pentagon secrets to the Israeli government. They claim that the US government uses AIPAC as a back channel to talk to Israel.
A federal judge has ruled that 15 members of the Bush Administration be subpoenaed to testify at the trial of the two men next year. They include Condolezza Rice, Stephen Hadley, Paul Wolfowitz, and Elliot Abrams.

Homeless Veterans

NYTimes 11-8. The number of veterans of the Iraq and Afghan Wars has surged to 400 and is growing. The many cases of post-traumatic stress disorder and brain injuries often lead to substance abuse and unstable behavior.

Pakistan

NY Times, CNN 11-3 – 11-9, W Post 11-9. President Musharraf has decreed a State of Emergency, He has expelled the chief justice from the supreme court, and holds him in house arrest. His police are beating up and arresting protesting lawyers and political activists. He has shut down all but government controlled TV stations and cell phones. The Bush Administration has expressed strong disapproval of these developments. Musharraf has promised to hold elections for parliament by Feb. 15, a month later than scheduled, and to take off his military uniform. Benazir Bhutto condemns his actions. She is under house arrest; hundreds of her followers have been arrested.


Israel
Washington Post 11-8. Jackson Diehl, deputy editorial page editor. In a TV broadcast Sunday evening, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert reversed the guiding principles of the Israeli government in the last seven years, and promised to fulfill Israel’s obligations (such as dismantling the West Bank settlements) to the letter. But right-wing opposition appeared immediately. While Olmert was speaking in Jerusalem, in Haifa at a soccer game, the announcer called for moment of silence for Yitzak Rabin, the Israeli Prime Minister murdered on November 4, 1995, by a right-wing extremist opposed to Rabin’s concessions for the sake of peace. Instead of silence, hundreds of people in the soccer crowd booed in protest against the announcer’s request for silence.
Mr. Diehl wrote that the probable results of failure of the peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians this month in Annapolis would be far worse than the dismal present situation. There would be another eruption of bloodshed. Hamas would consolidate its position in the West Bank and become the preeminent Palestinian power. Iran would become the arbiter of whether Israel would be accepted by its neighbors as the Jewish homeland.

Women in the Third World

The Economist, 11-3, p. 75. In poor countries the educational gap between men and women is narrowing. In 2004 in almost half the countries of the world girls outnumbered boys in secondary school 171 to 84. At the university level girls outnumber boys in 83 out of 141 countries. The education of girls is opening the paid workforce to them and lowering their fertility to the replacement level.

The Flashlight, Oct. 27 to Nov. 2, 2007

THE FLASHLIGHT, October 27--November 2, 2007

The Middle East Peace Conference
NY Review of Books, 11-8, p. 13. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Brent Scowcroft and four other foreign policy experts: Letter to Pres. Bush and Sec. Rice. The conference on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is scheduled for late November in Annapolis. The letter said that a freeze on the expansion of Israeli settlements should occur by the beginning of the conference. The experts supported the following provisions for a peace settlement:
1. There should be two states, divided by the line of June 4, 1967 (with minor adjustments).
2. Jerusalem should be divided into two parts, containing two capitals, Israeli and Palestinian.
3. The Palestinian refugees should be given financial compensation, reparations and assistance in resettlement.
4. Security provisions should be made for both Palestinians and Israelis.

Argentina

PBS 10-29. Argentina has its own Hilary: the wife of the former president, Nestor Kirchner, a Peronist, has won election to the presidency. Her name is Christina Fernandez de Kirchner. She is a lawyer and a Senator.

US Policy toward Iran: a debate

PBS 10-29. Norman Podhoretz, neocon leader and editor of Commentary, debated with Farid Zakaria, an editor of TIME magazine. Podhoretz wants the US to bomb Iran before they produce a nuclear weapon. Zakaria argued that deterrence worked in the cases of the USSR, China, and No. Korea, who have been deterred from using their nuclear weapons. He argued that deterrence works also for Iran. Podhoretz said that the religious fanaticism of the Iranians may prevent deterrence from working. Zakaria said that the Iranians act in their national interest and that they are deterred by Israel’s 200 nuclear weapons plus second strike submarines.

US Politics
The Mukasy Appointment as Attorney General
NYTimes 10-27, 10-31, and 11-1, CNN 11-1. Judge Michael B. Mukasy (ret.) is being considered for confirmation as AG by the Senate Judiciary Committee. At first it appeared he would easily be confirmed. But two issues have arisen: one is his view on the powers of the executive branch and the other, his hedging on whether or not waterboarding and other harsh measure of interrogation are illegal. He says they are repugnant to him, but he won’t say that under the constitution they are illegal. Senator Spector (R.) says this appointment is now “at risk” of being denied.
In an op-ed piece, NYT 11-1, Jennifer Daskal, senior counsel at Human Rights Watch, said that Mukasy is hedging on the torture issue because he is protecting current and former administration officials from possible prosecution in the US and abroad (Donald Rumsfeld has been accused of authorizing torture in French courts). If President Bush specifically authorized waterboarding even he could be legally liable.

War Protest

San Francisco Chronicle 10-28. About 30,000 protestors against the Iraq War, lay down on the ground in Market St. for three minutes. It was called a “die in,” in honor of the one million Iraqis killed since the spring of 2003. Similar protests occurred in other US cities.

Earthquake

San Francisco Chronicle 10-30. A point nine miles from the center of San Jose in the Calaveras Fault was the epicenter of a 5.6 Richter scale earthquake. This made a quake in the Hayward Fault more likely.

Science: Predictors of Cancer

The Guardian 10-31. The World Cancer Research Fund, in a survey of forty years of cancer research around the world, has announced the strongest predictors of the most common cancers. Smoking remained at the top of the list. But more surprising, obesity was second. It was linked to six types of cancer including breast, bowel, and pancreas. The report advised people to keep their weight as low as possible without being underweight. A third predictor of cancer was alcohol intake. It was linked to mouth, esophagous and breast cancer. Even one drink a day is significant in predicting breast cancer. (However for women one drink can help prevent a heart attack.) A fourth predictor of cancer was the consumption of certain meats. Processed meats, including ham, bacon, franks, etc. are most strongly linked to cancer, with red meat in general next in importance.

Science: Psychology and Superstition

Newsweek 10-5. “The Ghosts We Think We See” by Sharon Begley, from the work of Prof. of Psychology Bruce Hood of the University of Bristol, UK.
Only 7% of Americans are free of superstition. The rest believe in telepathy, déjà vu, ghosts, past lives or other supernatural phenomena. (Supernatural means anything that cannot be explained by the laws of physics and biology). Supernatural beliefs are the result of the normal working of the mind.
1, Neurons have a habit of filling in the blanks. They see patterns where there is mere coincidence, like a stain that reminds people of the Virgin Mary, or the wind in a cave that sounds like a voice.
2. The mind tends to impute consciousness to inanimate objects. It attributes purpose to the motions of these objects.
3. Belief in Mind-Body dualism: the belief that minds are not bound to bodies shows up by the time a child is two years old.

A factor in the explanation for these phenomena is the operation of the neurotransmitter dopamine. When skeptics were given L-dopa, a drug that increases the level of dopamine in the brain, their skeptical threshold fell, and they were more inclined to see patterns even in random noise.